Crack shall be a multipurpose word for this post. Really, I should make that cracked. I’ve had aces eight times in the last 14 hours of poker play, and they’ve been cracked like a dried out bone six of those times (I did win the blinds twice, so yippee-fucking-kai-yah-yay for that).
What has made it more frustrating is that four of those times came almost back to back. Yesterday in cash game, I had aces cracked with JJ by a tunnel-visioned calling station who caught his J on the turn. I folded the next hand, only to get AA the very next hand after that, where the same tunnel-visioned calling station did me another favor by cold calling me with A7s (flop 877).
Tonight, I had AA cracked by K9s who made a mistake calling preflop, and two hands later I had AA yet again, and had JT call preflop and flop (mathematically terrible calls, of course), only to catch trips on the river.
Now, as a poker player, getting people to call with such dominated hands is exactly what you are hoping for. Of those six times I have had AA cracked in the last two days, I played them correctly preflop every time, and post flop four times (see my note on my second biggest leak), and my opponents just got lucky. As Annie Duke wrote in a recent column entry for Card Player (I think it was CP), you can’t complain when your opponents misplay you and get lucky. Indeed, if the fish never got lucky, poker wouldn’t be profitable.
So huzzah, I’ve had a lot of very profitable hands, statistically speaking, in a very short period of time, and have played most of them very profitably. I was making tons of bets in the long run, and all that, but, damnit, it’s a bit frustrating to have the fish get lucky so many times in so short a time period, and right now I am indeed frustrated.
Please note, however, that I am not trying to tell a bad beat story. Like most poker players, I am tired of bad beat stories. I am also not bemoaning my bad luck. I firmly believe in the statistically side of poker, and am confident in my play. I know that my opponents were all making mistakes enter the pot against me, and in most cases, by calling either the flop or turn, but that sometimes they’ll get lucky. Hell, AA vs. JJ is only a 4-1 favorite (82:18 to be technical), and even the A7s can hope to win 12% of the time.
That said, I won’t delve into the chances of having AA twice in three hands on back to back nights, only to lose with them all four times. Of course, I won’t delve into it because I wouldn’t know how to determine that chance. I’ll have to ask Trevor. One can reasonably assume there is a tiny, tiny chance of that happening.
Nope, this post was not a bad beat post, just one whining about a statistical blip on the poker radar screen that has me temporarily frustrated.
Now, if I can only get past the point where I can be frustrated by even this sort of event, my play will take yet another step forward.
Gotta love poker. 🙂